Partly cloudy skies. Low 63F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph..

Partly cloudy skies. Low 63F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.

Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted the food-at-home pricing index jumped by 13.1 percent. This index monitors food purchased for consumption at home, and this represented the fastest increase since 1979.

Some of the most notable increases from the report show the price of eggs has increased 38 percent above last year. Chicken has increased more than 17 percent, milk has increased more than 15 percent, and flour increased more than 22 percent. It’s predicted these increases will continue.

Even though there have been multiple news stories saying we’re not officially in a recession, I feel all of the signs of one are on the horizon.

If you’re not familiar with how I became the “Super-Couponing Queen,” allow me to go back to 2007, when the economy started to take a turn. I’d given birth to my youngest son, and his big brother was just 2 years old. The biggest budget-buster I was living with? Diapers. A newborn baby brings nearly nonstop diapering anyway, but with two in diapers, it seemed as though they were taking up an enormous percentage of our household’s finances.

I always had used coupons, but I began paying more attention to price fluctuations and sales cycles. During the months that followed, I developed a system of matching high-value coupons to the lowest sale prices in each cycle, and Super-Couponing was born. In summer 2008, I taught a workshop for my local library, and in just a couple of months’ time, I had a coupon segment on one of the largest radio stations in Chicago, I had dozens of workshops booked all over the Midwest, and I had an offer to write the column you’re reading right now.

All of that was born out of noticing the economy was taking a turn for the worse — far ahead of most of the official statements noting it was. In fact, it wasn’t until December 2008 the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared the United States was in a recession — and then they stated the recession had begun a year before December 2007.

Currently, I see a lot of the same markers as I saw in 2007 that indicate to me we already are in a recession, and I believe it is only a matter of time before we see a similar, official “backdated” recession declaration. This time, there are so many other elements in play, too. It’s not just grocery prices that are high — multiple other things, from gasoline to building materials, also are very high.

In August, the National Association of Home Builders announced the United States has entered a housing recession, noting prospective buyers had been declining for eight months and was now at their lowest levels in the past two years. This, again, is yet another indicator to me the country already is recession-bound.

A third element is the increased costs in grains (both for human consumption and animal feed) and fertilizer. Not only does this mean we won’t see a sudden drop in meat prices anytime soon, it also means we will be feeling the effects of the current situation on future meat prices well into next year, as well as higher pricing on anything made with grains, too. Many of the cereals, breads, crackers, cake mixes and numerous other grain-heavy items currently on the shelves were made with last year’s grains. Increased costs for this year’s harvest will be reflected in next year’s products, too.

I think it’s important to be aware of all of these things so when we do see good deals on them, particularly if they’re products that freeze or store well, we can purchase in somewhat larger quantities now and stock up to avoid price increases in the future.

While not everything has a long shelf life, shelf-stable products such as cereal, pasta and dried grains and beans certainly do — many of these are safe to consume for a year or more. Next week, I’ll discuss food expiration dates and guidelines.

Jill Cataldo, a coupon workshop instructor, writer and mother of three, never passes up a good deal. Learn more about Super-Couponing at her website, jillcataldo.com. Email your own couponing victories and questions to jill@ctwfeatures.com.

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